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New Polls - The Debate Reframed the Race   May 11, 2007


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Hillary's lead is widening.That's what a new round of polling in the wake of South Carolina's Democratic debate makes clear. These new polls show that voters around the country - and in the key early states in particular - are looking for a candidate with the right experience to lead America. Americans got a chance to see that candidate when Hillary participated in the first debate about two weeks ago in South Carolina. Because the debate was seen by a small audience, it took a while for the full impact of her winning performance to be felt. Clearly, the debate reframed the race – people were looking at who could be the best president, and I think the result is driving a lot of the polls coming out today: America saw that Hillary is ready to lead. NATIONAL USA Today/Gallup (May 4-6)This poll shows Hillary with a 15 point lead over Obama: Hillary 38, Obama 23. Hillary is the only candidate whose numbers improved after the debate. She is up 7 points from a survey taken three weeks earlier and Obama is 3 points lower than before.CNN (May 4-6)Hillary 38, Obama 24, Gore 12, Edwards 12- Since CNN’s pre-debate poll on April 12 Hillary’s lead has gone from 4 to 14: Hillary has gone up 8, Obama has gone down 2, Gore has gone down 3, and Edwards has remained steady.Hillary 41, Obama 27, Edwards 14- In this horserace without Gore, Hillary’s lead has gone from 8 to 14 since the April 12 pre-debate poll.Quinnipiac (April 25-May 1)Hillary 32, Obama 18, Gore 14, Edwards 12 STATES New Hampshire: ARG (April 26-29)Hillary 37, Edwards 26, Obama 14 New Hampshire: Survey USA (May 4-6)Hillary 40, Obama 24, Edwards 22 South Carolina: ARG (April 27-30)Hillary 36, Obama 24, Edwards 18 New Jersey: Strategic Vision (April 25-27)Hillary 40, Obama 23, Edwards 12 Nevada: Mason Dixon (April 30-May 1)Hillary 37, Edwards 13, Obama 12 Alabama: InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion (April 30-May1)Hillary 40, Obama 19, Edwards 18 And I won’t generally report the Rasmussen polls since they are IVR but some journalists made a big deal of their poll showing it having closed and today reversed the trend to have her up 8.Rasmussen (April 30-May 3)Hillary 34, Obama 26, Edwards 16- The latest Rasmussen shows the same trend as CNN: Hillary has gained 4 points and now leads by 8, Obama has lost 6 points, and Edwards has lost a point. UPDATE: More data has come out underscoring the trend I highlighted above. USAToday/Gallup (May 4-6)Today USA Today/Gallup released data for the ballot question without Al Gore: Hillary 45, Obama 27, Edwards 14- On this ballot as well Hillary is the only candidate whose numbers improved after the debate. She is up 8 points from a survey taken three weeks earlier, expanding her lead from 8 to 18 points. Obama has dropped 2 points and Edwards is down 5 points.WNBC/Marist (April 26-May 1)Hillary 35, Obama 17, Edwards 15, Gore 9- This is yet another poll conducted after the debate showing Hillary with a strong lead.

Video from: hillaryclinton.com





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